U.S. companies swallowed the oil shock. They’re not sure they can do it again

Chief financial officers (CFOs) across U.S. companies said they’ve been able to navigate the challenges of increased energy costs as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but that’s done little to assuage their anxieties around future inflation, according to new Fed data. A survey published on Wednesday by the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta and Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business surveying 530 financial executives found a growing disparity between CFOs’ trust in their own companies versus the economy more broadly as the war in Iran ostensibly concludes. Executives reported being able to absorb increased costs, but feel more pessimistic about rising prices more broadly. While two-thirds of companies saw increased production costs last quarter as a result of energy price shocks, only one-third passed those increases to consumers. However, inflation was a growing worry, with 25% of firms naming it as their most pressing concern in second-quarter 2026, up from 9.5% last quarter. CFOs slashed U.S. economic growth projections from 2.1% last quarter to 1.8% this quarter. The pattern of a widening gap between one’s personal financial health and the broader economic health extends beyond the C-suite. The Federal Reserve’s annual Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking released last month found Americans’ overall financial wellbeing has held steady for years, with 73% of survey respondents saying they were doing OK or lived comfortably in 2025, compared to 75% in 2024. However, only 25% saw the national economy as “good” or “excellent,” mirroring 2024’s 28%, but falling far below the pre-pandemic 49%. But with energy costs likely to persist above prewar norms, Atlanta Fed economist Brent Meyer suggested companies’ concerns about the economy may catch up to their own bottom lines. He noted that while pass-through rates have remained low now, if oil prices continue to rise or remain elevated, pass-through would skyrocket to about 90%. “