California Democrats Avoided the Worst-Case Scenario

As with pretty much everything involving California governance, discerning the state’s election results can devolve into a big, unruly mess. To wit, Tuesday’s primary—particularly the free-for-all campaign for governor to succeed Gavin Newsom—remains too muddled to call, with millions of outstanding ballots likely yet to be counted.At minimum, though, we can speak with some preliminary clarity, let’s call it, on the contest. California elections are consolidated via a “jungle primary” system, in which the top-two finishers, regardless of party, advance to November. As of today, the Trump-endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, a British transplant and former Fox News host, is the leading vote-getter. Two Democrats—the former California attorney general and Joe Biden Cabinet secretary Xavier Becerra and the billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer—are currently sitting in second and third place, respectively. And there’s still a chance both could come from behind to squeeze out Hilton.Democrats appear to have skirted a dreaded “Blue Armageddon” scenario in which their crowded field of middling-or-worse candidates cancel one another out, while the two middling-or-worse Republicans (Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco) advance to the final two. “Bullet dodged” seems to be the prevailing takeaway among Democrats. If Becerra or Steyer winds up facing Hilton, they will clearly be favored to win, given the state’s heavily Democratic makeup and what looks to be an overwhelmingly Democratic-friendly electoral environment across the country.Still, even if Team Blue will likely win in the end, the California governor’s race has been a fiasco for Democrats from the start—and in ways that reflect an ongoing dysfunction that has become a feature of the party in recent years. Even worse, California in 2026 could portend a larger and more destructive performance from the party in 2028.[Mark Leibovich: California’s Blue Armageddon]For starters, Democrats won’t have Donald Trump