Winners and losers in Iran-Israel+America war

THE announcement of a two-week ceasefire in the war between the US, Israel and Iran resolves none of the issues which caused the conflict. Beyond an agreement to cease attacks, the arrangements that will hold during the two-week period appear themselves unclear. Each side in the last hours seemed to commit to different versions of the ceasefire in key areas. From Israel’s and USA point of view, the bottom line is clear. The Iranian regime has been significantly weakened in its capacities in a number of key areas though not to the extent, both wanted. Iran has shown remarkable resilience and defiance in the face of blatant Israeli aggression and has met with suitable reply by Iran, though its top leadership has been targeted by Israel and its intentions remain unchanged. This means that whether or not fighting resumes after the current uneasy ceasefire, a long war is set to continue. Regarding the precise details of the ceasefire, Pakistani Prime Minister said that the deal, brokered by Islamabad, applied “everywhere, including Lebanon.” Such an interpretation would not be to Israel’s liking. A key objective from Jerusalem’s point of view throughout has been to separate the Lebanese front from any larger US-led arrangement with Iran. Israel believes that the Lebanese Hezbollah made a severe error in choosing to enter the war on March 4 after the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. It wants to use the opportunity to establish a buffer zone north of the border, to put the residents of Israel’s northern border communities out of range of Hezbollah’s anti-tank missiles and free of the constant danger of an October 7-style ground incursion. This process is not yet completed and five IDF divisions are currently in Lebanon engaged against Hezbollah south of the Litani River as Israel wants to deploy greater force against Hezbollah. A statement from the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office quickly clarified that from Israel’s point of view, the ceasefire does not exte