The Mirage of China's Military Edge
Key takeaways
- Panic Is Misguided—and Counterproductive
- If China were to seize control of Taiwan by force, it would be a disaster, not only for Taiwan but also for the United States.
- Whether any of this might come to pass, however, hinges on China’s ability to take and hold Taiwan.
Panic Is Misguided—and Counterproductive
If China were to seize control of Taiwan by force, it would be a disaster, not only for Taiwan but also for the United States. A nearly $1 trillion economy would leave the free-market system and be incorporated into China’s state-directed, mercantilist one. A vibrant democracy nurtured and defended by the United States for many years would be snuffed out. American power and influence would be gravely diminished in East Asia, and China would become the region’s dominant power. Other governments there would be pressured to accommodate China’s political, economic, and even territorial demands. Beijing would certainly insist that they kick out U.S. forces. China’s global ambitions, meanwhile, would only grow.
Whether any of this might come to pass, however, hinges on China’s ability to take and hold Taiwan. The high-paced military buildup Beijing has undertaken over the past 30 years has yielded impressive improvements, and China’s interest in expanding its power and influence is obvious. But until China can be confident that an invasion of Taiwan would succeed—a lofty threshold to reach—improving capabilities and clear ambition are not enough reason for Beijing to use force. Military aggression short of a full-scale invasion would be foolhardy: it would not deliver the Chinese Communist Party the political ends it seeks, and it would risk the party’s grip on power.