Will the Federal Reserve Raise or Lower Interest Rates in 2026? Here's What the Data Suggests.
Key takeaways
- Leo Sun, The Motley Fool Mon, June 22, 2026 at 5:20 PM GMT+7 4 min read The Federal Reserve s interest rate decisions have a major impact on the markets.
- However, the Fed has left its benchmark rate unchanged through four Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings this year, even after Kevin Warsh succeeded Jerome Powell as the new Federal Reserve Chairman on May 22.
- In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia.
Leo Sun, The Motley Fool Mon, June 22, 2026 at 5:20 PM GMT+7 4 min read The Federal Reserve s interest rate decisions have a major impact on the markets. When it raised its benchmark rate 11 consecutive times in 2022 and 2023, from nearly 0% to 5.25%-5.50%, many stocks crumbled. But when it reduced its rates six consecutive times in 2024 and 2025, ending at a range of 3.50%-3.75%, many of those stocks bounced back.
However, the Fed has left its benchmark rate unchanged through four Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings this year, even after Kevin Warsh succeeded Jerome Powell as the new Federal Reserve Chairman on May 22. Warsh s decision to keep interest rates steady during the mid-June FOMC meeting didn t surprise investors. Still, he also stopped the Fed from providing any forward guidance and refused to submit his own interest rate projections.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »