ASEAN’s Angry Summit

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Southeast Asia Brief. The highlights this week: The ASEAN summit looms as frustration with the United States grows, Aung San Suu Kyi gets out of prison, Thailand prepares to take out a massive loan, and Bali faces a trash-tastrophe. Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Southeast Asia Brief. The highlights this week: The ASEAN summit looms as frustration with the United States grows, Aung San Suu Kyi gets out of prison, Thailand prepares to take out a massive loan, and Bali faces a trash-tastrophe. A leaders’ summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is about to kick off from Thursday to Friday in Cebu, Philippines. But instead of the usual circus, it will be a “bare-bones” affair, in the words of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The reason is the ongoing fuel crisis, which the conference will focus on addressing. And attitudes toward the United States, which precipitated the crisis with its strikes on Iran, are turning bitter. When U.S. President Donald Trump was reelected in 2024, many in Southeast Asia reacted with complacency or even a little pleasure. Trump could be unpredictable, sure—but his first term had worked out OK for Southeast Asia, with many companies relocating production out of China and into the region. Lectures about human rights, commonplace in administrations led by the U.S. Democratic Party, were expected to drop off. And many bought the “Donald-the-dove” rhetoric, seeing his predecessor—President Joe Biden—as having shoveled weapons to Ukraine and Israel. A little more than a year into Trump’s presidency, and the mood has changed sharply. In the crudest terms, this is because Trump has started to affect Southeast Asia’s bottom line. The effects of his 2025 tariffs were not as bad as feared, but they still shocked many. This year, an influential survey found that a majority of movers and shakers in ASEAN said that if they were forced to pick between the United States and China, they would pick China. And that poll was conducted before the start of the Iran war on Feb. 28. While the tariffs were borne better than expected, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is threatening the region with serious economic damage. Highly dependent on the Persian Gulf for its energy supplies, Asia has felt the bite of the fuel crisis first and sharpest. Countries in the region resent paying the economic price for U.S. foreign-policy adventurism. In an interview with the Washington Post last week, Thail Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow said the war “should not have taken place.” He also noted that the United States has not offered Thailand assistance dealing with the fallout. Still, don’t expect anything remotely as pointed from the ASEAN conference’s official statements. On April 30, a joint statement by ASEAN’s economic ministers on the situation in the Middle East expressed “deep concern” about “disruptions to key maritime routes.” However, it did not name names, instead merely noting the importance of maintaining international law as well as calling for measures to mitigate the economic fallout. As a body, ASEAN relies on consensus, which means that its statements only go as far as the most conservative voice in the group. And this year’s chairmanship by the Philippines—the most pro-U.S. member of ASEAN—will further dampen any criticisms. Behind closed doors, though, conversations will be about managing a crisis that the United States has created, covering topics such as fuel supplies, food prices, and migrant workers in the Middle East. Some other topics will be on the agenda, too. Myanmar, frozen out since its 2021 coup, is pushing for normalization, backed by Thailand. Detained former leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s reported transfer from prison to house arrest (more on that below) will be used as ballast for the case. The Philippines will also renew a push for a joint ASEAN-China code of conduct for the South China Sea. Analysts have suggested that incremental progress on mechanisms to help manage friction—rather than resolve the issue—might be possible. Lastly, the Thai-Cambodian border dispute may be discussed on the sidelines. Trilateral talks brokered by the Philippines have been proposed. Yet Thailand, which holds the upper hand, appears to be uncompromising. I’ll be bringing you the inside track from Cebu in next week’s newsletter. FP Insiders, who belong to our highest membership tier, should also look for an exclusive dispatch delivered to their inboxes on Friday. Aung San Suu Kyi Saga’s Latest Twist. Aung San Suu Kyi has been transferred from prison to house arrest, Myanmar state media announced on April 30. The move followed Myanmar’s military junta granting clemency to various imprisoned opposition figures in mid-April, which included a shortening of her sentence. The former leader was in fact first moved from Naypyitaw prison to a specially built secure house in Naypyitaw some weeks ago, according to a scoop from

ASEAN’s Angry Summit

Key takeaways

More in publications