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Will Elon Musk win his lawsuit against Sam Altman's OpenAI? Here's what prediction markets think

CNBC · May 6, 2026, 8:32 PM · Also reported by 4 other sources

Key takeaways

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  • In the eyes of prediction markets traders, Elon Musk is hurting himself in the trial against Open AI.
  • The multibillion-dollar lawsuit against Open AI went to trial on April 27 in federal court in Oakland, Calif.

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In the eyes of prediction markets traders, Elon Musk is hurting himself in the trial against Open AI.

The multibillion-dollar lawsuit against Open AI went to trial on April 27 in federal court in Oakland, Calif. The day after proceedings started, Kalshi traders were calling for a 60% likelihood Musk would win the case. Those odds dropped to just under 34% on May 2, two days after Musk concluded his testimony.

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