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When a Cease-Fire Is Really a Stalemate
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When a Cease-Fire Is Really a Stalemate

Foreign Affairs · Jun 19, 2026, 4:00 AM

Key takeaways

  • Equilibrium With Iran Is the Best America Can Do
  • A stalemate is the least admired of diplomatic outcomes.
  • President Donald Trump, this is not a great outcome.

HUSSEIN BANAI is Associate Professor of International Studies at the Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies at Indiana University, Bloomington, and a co-author of Republics of Myth: National Narratives and the U.S.-Iran Conflict.

Equilibrium With Iran Is the Best America Can Do

A stalemate is the least admired of diplomatic outcomes. It resolves nothing, satisfies no one, and is counted as a victory only by the weaker party, for whom survival is achievement enough. But this is the condition into which the war between Iran and the United States has settled and, after 107 days of hostilities, the one both sides have finally made formal. On June 17, Tehran and Washington signed a deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz and ends the American naval blockade while doing nothing to address the two countries’ underlying disputes. The deal offers Tehran genuine relief: Washington will immediately waive sanctions on Iranian oil, begin releasing frozen Iranian funds, and commit to a reconstruction package worth at least $300 billion. But every hard question about Iran’s nuclear program, its missile program, and its network of proxies has been punted to an undetermined point in the future.

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