Controversy swirls over Spanish soccer club accused of using novel $600,000 Kalshi wager to bet on its relegation

A Spanish football club at the center of a prediction market controversy has denied placing a nearly $600,000 bet on Kalshi to hedge against the financial hit of dropping to a lower tier in one of the world’s top soccer leagues—a fate that hinged on the outcome of a single match. Club Atlético Osasuna came under the spotlight after Semafor reported that it had bet against itself as a way to offset economic losses that come with relegation, a term that refers to a team being demoted to an inferior league. Osasuna was set to play against Getafe FC on May 23 as part of LaLiga, Spain’s top professional soccer league. If it lost, its ranking—and broadcasting revenues—would suffer. Earlier this month, reports surfaced of an Osasuna-related contract on Kalshi, a top prediction markets platform that allows users to bet on sports and a wide variety of other real-world events. The contract invited bettors to place wagers on whether Osasuna would be relegated from LaLiga in the 2025-2026 season. Activity soon exploded on the platform as nearly 3.5 million contracts were purchased, driving the total value of all bets up to $591,600. Rumors soon emerged that Osasuna had helped drive that volume, but the Navarre-based club denied this was the case. “Osasuna did not place any bets on the Kalshi platform, did not participate in any prediction markets, and had no direct relationship whatsoever with Kalshi… or any other similar entity,” an Osasuna representative told Fortune in a Spanish language statement. Instead, the club confirmed that it had taken out a €1.2 million relegation risk policy with Howden, an international insurance company. As part of a previous effort to quell the controversy, Osasuna released documents confirming its contract with Howden, and that LaLiga had been informed of the arrangement. A new twist on an old hedging strategy In response to a request for comment about the Osasuna controversy, a Kalshi spokesperson provided a more detailed account of what