Eswatini’s oil reserve gamble

Eswatini is a country standing at a crossroads — and increasingly, at the edge of a cliff. The latest World Bank data paints a stark picture: one in three citizens is unemployed and nearly half the population lives in poverty, surviving on less than $3 (about R50) a day. Youth unemployment hovers near catastrophic levels and the economy, though showing flickers of growth, remains too small, too fragile and too undiversified to absorb the thousands of young people entering the labour market each year. Against this bleak backdrop, under the absolute leadership of King Mswati III since 1986, eSwatini government officials have signed a $300 million (12 billion Emalangeni) financing agreement with Taiwan for the construction of the Phuzumoya Strategic Oil Reserve — a project pitched as a cornerstone of national energy security. The deal, formalised in Taipei, commits eSwatini to a 36-month build of an 80 million litre fuel reserve, split evenly between petrol and diesel. It is the largest infrastructure financing agreement eSwatini has entered in years. But the question that hangs over the announcement is unavoidable: Can a country battling deepening poverty and chronic unemployment afford such a project and can it afford not to? The project has become further mired in controversy amid allegations about the beneficiaries of the agreement. According to allegations circulating among activists and political insiders, the project could financially benefit members of the royal family and politically connected figures. The government denies the claims. After a controversial visit to eSwatini by Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te earlier this month, the Taiwanese agreed to increase the transfer of interests to the nation. Ambassador Liang Hong-sheng was reportedly instructed to inform the royal family that once the storage facility was built, the income would belong to the king and royal family. Members of the royal family, including the king and Natural Resources Minister Prince