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A 'perfect storm' points to a much smaller U.S. auto market by 2040

CNBC · Jun 28, 2026, 11:00 AM · Also reported by 1 other source

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  • Ten years ago, a record 17.6 million cars, trucks and SUVs were sold in the U.S.
  • Analysts at consulting firm Bain & Company said several signs indicate the market is about to shrink even more.

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Ten years ago, a record 17.6 million cars, trucks and SUVs were sold in the U.S. Some forecasts say the country might not come close to that number again.

Analysts at consulting firm Bain & Company said several signs indicate the market is about to shrink even more. Falling birth rates, behavioral changes, high car prices and a growing array of alternatives could drive sales down by more than 2 million units by 2040, according to their analysis.

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