Jonathan Taylor among 12 players who will score fe...
Key takeaways
- Football statistics can prove hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.
- The 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 versions of this yearly report provide overwhelming evidence.
- There are 151 names in those pieces and, in 137 cases, the player scored fewer touchdowns the following season.
Why this matters: a sports story that could shift standings, legacies, or fan conversations.
Jonathan Taylor will have a difficult time repeating his 19 trips to the end zone from last season. Johnnie Izquierdo/Getty Images Mike Clay Jun 26, 2026, 08:11 AM ETClose Mike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on "Fantasy Football Now" and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.Follow on XMultiple Authors Email Print Open Extended Reactions Editor's note: As you get ready for fantasy football 2026, be sure to get plenty of practice by using our Mock Draft Lobby and keep track of Mike Clay's updated projections throughout the season.
Football statistics can prove hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.
The 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 versions of this yearly report provide overwhelming evidence.