Some Climate Shocks Can Increase the Likelihood of War
Key takeaways
- The study, published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, analyzed detailed climate and armed-conflict data from 1950 to 2023.
- Both are cyclical ocean temperature shifts that alter rainfall, storm and drought patterns across large parts of the planet; scientists say human-caused global warming is intensifying many of their extreme impacts.
- The new study seeks to clarify the connections by treating climate oscillations as a natural climate experiment spanning decades of conflict data.
Why this matters: environmental and climate reporting with long-term consequences.
May 11, 2026 Share This Article Republish People flee a U.N. base, where gunmen opened fire on South Sudanese civilians sheltering inside, in the town of Malakal on Feb. 18, 2016. Scientists tracing links between climate impacts and conflicts found that some regions can tip toward violence when they reach extreme drought tipping points. Credit: Justin Lynch/AFP via Getty Images Related War Harms the Environment. Can a Peace Treaty Repair the Damage? As Energy, War and Climate Collide, a Conference in Colombia Charts a Path Beyond Fossil Fuels A Protracted US–Iran War Could Strain Climate Finance From Wealthy Countries to Developing Nations Share This Article Republish Most Popular Plugging Away at the Millions of Derelict Oil and Gas Wells in the US $370 Million Payout California’s Battery Array Is as Powerful as 12 Nuclear Power Plants. Here’s What’s on the Horizon. New research reinforces scientific evidence that climate extremes can raise the risk of armed conflict, especially when drought conditions pass critical thresholds in vulnerable regions, including parts of Africa and Southeast Asia.
The study, published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, analyzed detailed climate and armed-conflict data from 1950 to 2023. The researchers said they found statistically significant links between conflicts and climate impacts from two well-documented natural climate cycles: El Niño in the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean Dipole.
Both are cyclical ocean temperature shifts that alter rainfall, storm and drought patterns across large parts of the planet; scientists say human-caused global warming is intensifying many of their extreme impacts. Intense climate shocks have shaped societies for millennia, but it’s been challenging to disentangle the effects of climate from factors such as demographic changes, national histories and other economic and social pressures.