Canadians are folding on Vegas. Democrats see a royal flush.

President Donald Trump's trade war has driven Canadians from Las Vegas. Democrats think it will help them protect their Nevada battleground seats in November. Last year, as Trump levied tariffs on Canada, visits from Canadians — who account for up to half of Las Vegas’ foreign tourism — dropped off by 17 percent. That played a large role in a 7.5 percent year-over-year decline in total tourist visits, making 2025 the worst non-pandemic year for Las Vegas since the city started tracking data in 1970. Now, as peak tourism season arrives in a battleground state where Republicans’ control of the House could be won or lost, Democrats are pushing voters to see the tourism slump as a direct impact of Trump’s levies. “Trump instituted his reckless tariffs. In response, Canadians have literally boycotted traveling to America,” said Rep. Susie Lee (D-Nev.), whose Las Vegas-area seat is Republicans’ top target in the state. “That has had a significant impact on our tourism.” Trump narrowly carried Lee’s district in 2024 and nearly won two other Vegas-area districts held by Democrats. Republicans are less bullish than they were a year ago about flipping the seats, but they view Lee's as their best chance. The races are a rare example of the international politics of tariffs — beyond their direct economic impact — playing a major role in an election. Unlike the upper Midwest or the Great Plains, Nevada doesn’t have a large manufacturing or agricultural sector jolted by the tariffs. Instead, the product most affected is the state’s Canadian visitors — who, on any given year, make up between 25 and 50 percent of Las Vegas’ foreign tourism market. Spokespeople for the Republican National Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee criticized Nevada’s Democratic congresspeople for voting against last year’s reconciliation bill, which included a “no tax on tips” provision. “If they actually cared about affordability, they wouldn’t have spent years making Nevada hard