The Supreme Court handed Trump a Golden Chariot on tariffs — now he just has to take it

In Greek theater, a deus ex machina arrives when a protagonist is hopelessly trapped — and a golden chariot descends from the heavens to rescue them from a conflict they cannot escape on their own. That is precisely what the Supreme Court has delivered to Donald Trump on trade. With his IEEPA tariff authority struck down as an illegal tax on American businesses and consumers, Trump has been handed an exit ramp from a trade war that was failing on nearly every front: alienating allies, stoking inflation, revolting bond markets, and uniting the American business community against him in rare collective opposition. The question now is whether Trump will climb into the chariot — or stand in the street and argue with the driver. The ruling has set three consequential developments in motion simultaneously, each of which reshapes the economic outlook for the better. Companies Are Collecting — and the Earnings Boost Is Enormous Ever since the Customs and Border Protection agency opened a refund portal on April 20 for the more than 330,000 firms that paid over $166 billion in import taxes under Trump’s court-invalidated use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, corporate America has moved with striking unanimity. Walmart, Apple, Home Depot, General Motors, John Deere, FedEx, and Costco have all confirmed they are applying for refunds. Not a single major company has publicly declined to pursue the money owed to them — nor should any expect to, given the fiduciary obligations executives hold to their shareholders. More than $35 billion has already been processed and is on its way to business bank accounts, according to a CBP court filing. The government owes roughly $166 billion plus interest in total — a one-time windfall equivalent to nearly a quarter of S&P 500 earnings in the first quarter of 2026. With earnings season approaching, that is a potential 25% boost to company earnings: a remarkable and largely unheralded tailwind. As former Under Secretary