Asia is turning to coal in the Iran crisis, but nuclear power will be the real endgame

The closed Strait of Hormuz has triggered a sharp energy shock across Asia. Last year, nearly 90% of the oil and gas transported through the strait was destined for the region. But with the waterway shut for nearly two months, Asian policymakers now have to urgently rethink their energy strategies. The answer, for many countries, is coal. The Philippines, Japan, Thailand and South Korea, among others, have turned to coal as a stopgap measure to stabilize their power supply amid volatility in oil and natural gas markets. Coal exporters like Indonesia are also ramping up their stockpiles as the Middle East conflict triggers a price surge. This looks like backsliding for a region that was already struggling to meet its emissions targets. But while coal gets today’s headlines, Asia’s energy future lies in nuclear power, the only fuel able to provide regular electricity. The shift to coal is a short-term response to concerns about energy security. Asia is still deeply tied to fossil fuels, with power generation, transmission and financing built around coal, oil and gas. Any pivot from these fuels is going to be constrained by investment cycles and the time it takes to build alternatives. But a spike in coal usage is unlikely to persist in the long-term. Governments know that any reliance on fossil fuels is a strategic vulnerability. Coal may be a readily available buffer for now, but the Iran war won’t derail the transition to cleaner energy. Over the long-term, the Iran war will reinforce, not reverse, the region’s shift to a more diversified energy mix. The conflict is underscoring the true reason governments want fewer fossil fuels: Not to reduce emissions, but to reduce exposure to a volatile energy market. Nuclear, not (just) renewables Renewable energy, like solar and wind, will continue to be popular options in Asia. But these energy sources, on their own, won’t be able to replace baseload fossil fuel generation. Nuclear energy can. Energy policymakers and planner