Is Putin Finally Feeling Pressure?
Key takeaways
- The war in Ukraine, which not long ago seemed to be turning in favor of Vladimir Putin’s invading Russian Army, appears to have undergone another reversal.
- Our conversation, edited for length and clarity, is below.
- Numerous reports suggest that Putin is facing increasing levels of domestic skepticism and anger over what’s happening in Russia.
The war in Ukraine, which not long ago seemed to be turning in favor of Vladimir Putin’s invading Russian Army, appears to have undergone another reversal. Thanks in part to its drone campaign, the Ukrainians have, according to some analysts, “turned the tide,” putting pressure on Putin to potentially accept a ceasefire in the coming months. At the same time, there have been bubbles of discontent forming within Russia, over the cost of the war and government crackdowns on internet access. (On Thursday, Ukraine launched what may be its largest drone attack ever on Moscow, causing chaos throughout the city.)
To understand what might be happening in Russia, and how the Putin regime might respond, I recently e-mailed several rounds of questions to Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, and the founder of the political analysis organization R.Politik. Our conversation, edited for length and clarity, is below. We discuss whether anything has really changed in Russian politics, the dangerously chaotic decades that may await the European continent, and why—even if Putin is unlikely to be dislodged—his mystique may be starting to fade.
Numerous reports suggest that Putin is facing increasing levels of domestic skepticism and anger over what’s happening in Russia. Do you view this skepticism as coming from Russian élites, or average Russians, or both, and how do you distinguish between their different feelings?