Will AI kill your job?

ECONOMIC progress does not exhibit a linear trajectory. Episodes of abundance and prosperity sit alongside instances of pessimism and hardship. Today’s world is no different. Aside from the glumness unleashed by the recent US-Iran war and its repercussions, perpetual anxiety seems to have enveloped the economic landscape since at least a decade or more. And it has to do with how artificial intelligence (AI) will shape the economy and job market. Some of the predictions paint such a frightening picture that it would make Dr Doom himself blush. But is the probable future really so terrifying? As with most such queries in economics, let us turn to economic history and see what it divulges, mainly because this fear has resonated persistently across history — at least since clergymen William Lee invented the ‘stocking frame’ in the late 16th century (Elizabeth I had refused to grant him patent, fearing joblessness for hand-knitters). In 1927, US labour secretary James J. Davis, who served under three presidents, dwelt upon this issue. Here are a few excerpts from his speech: “Every day sees the perfection of some new mechanical miracle that enables one man to do better and more quickly what many men used to do. … But what is all this machinery doing for us? What is it doing to us? … …one man now does what 41 men formerly did. What are we doing with the men displaced? … If you take the long view, there is nothing in sight to give us grave concern. I am no more concerned over the men once needed to blow bottles than I am over the seamstresses that we once were afraid would starve when the sewing machine came in. We know that thousands more seamstresses than before earn a living that would be impossible without the sewing machine. In the end, every device that lightens human toil and increases production is a boon to humanity.” That was 1927 — Davis asserting that technological progress brings more opportunities and progress than problems and misery. Technology tends to alt