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Analysis: Iran war hangs over Trump's China trip — and his presidency

CNBC · May 12, 2026, 1:20 PM · Also reported by 4 other sources

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  • Even if a deal to get oil tankers moving again were reached tomorrow — and there is little sign of that — Americans are facing the prospect of months or more of new inflation worries.
  • The question now isn't whether Trump secure his war aims with dignity.

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As President Donald Trump prepares to head to China for crucial negotiations with the leader of the No. 2 global power, it is becoming clear that the political and economic damage unleashed by the Iran war can't be easily left behind. Even if a deal to get oil tankers moving again were reached tomorrow — and there is little sign of that — Americans are facing the prospect of months or more of new inflation worries.

The question now isn't whether Trump secure his war aims with dignity. It is whether his presidency can ever recover from the war's body blow.

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