The Iran Deal Could Be The Real Deal, But Could Be Fragile
Key takeaways
- Energy The Iran Deal Could Be The Real Deal, But Could Be Fragile By Michael Lynch,
- At this writing (Friday 8 a.m.), the details remain murky and confirmation from Iran is less than clear.
- Reopening the Straits will allow trapped tankers to resume travel and inventories to begin rebuilding, although how quickly production can be restored and how much demand will rebound are open questions.
Energy The Iran Deal Could Be The Real Deal, But Could Be Fragile By Michael Lynch,
Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. I analyze petroleum economics and energy policy.Follow Author Jun 12, 2026, 07:32am EDTUNITED STATES - APRIL 6: President Donald Trump mimics firing a gun during a news conference in the White House briefing room about the war in Iran on Monday, April 6, 2026. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images After repeatedly claiming that a peace deal or at least a more comprehensive ceasefire was imminent only to find that Iran disagreed, President Trump may have actually reached an agreement that will allow the Straits of Hormuz to be reopened. Oil prices have already plummeted (again) in anticipation of resumed flows and many are hopeful that will prove lasting, reducing gasoline and fertilizer prices and helping to moderate inflation.
At this writing (Friday 8 a.m.), the details remain murky and confirmation from Iran is less than clear. Part of the problem is that both sides have discussed red lines, or terms that they consider essential to any agreement and beyond compromise, and it’s unclear if those have been addressed, but they might now be willing to compromise on them.