Iran is forcing the U.S. into an escalation trap as a ‘shadow war’ over the Strait of Hormuz heats up that could kill the tenuous ceasefire

The U.S.-Iran ceasefire was already not much of a ceasefire as missiles, drones, and bombs continue exploding around the Persian Gulf. But this week’s latest exchange of fire over who controls the Strait of Hormuz threatens to snuff out the deal just weeks after it was signed. On Sunday, Iran launched new attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain, while threatening a “complete halt” to peace talks. It continuined a tit-for-tat cycle of retaliation after U.S. airstrikes punished the regime for targeting commercial ships with drones. The renewed skirmishes come as Iran seeks to shut down an alternate route through the strait that’s protected by the U.S. and bypasses a Tehran-backed channel meant to normalize its control over the vital energy chokepoint. Over the weekend, the alternate route, which hugs the Omani coast, was expanded to accommodate both inbound and outbound traffic. That further dilutes Iran’s hold over the strait—its top source of leverage. President Donald Trump has called Iran’s actions a violation of the ceasefire and threatened devastating consequences. But he has also signaled reluctance to go back to war and hasn’t followed through on similar threats. “Iran is choking Hormuz, forcing a brutal choice: escalate or surrender control,” University of Chicago political science professor Robert Pape posted on X. “Trump wants out, but Iran is forcing the ‘escalation trap.’ The collision course is set, and worse is yet to come.” For now, the U.S. Navy appears to be making of a point of showing that the alternate route is still safe, as Gulf traffic data Sunday revealed a convoy of tankers heading through the strait under escort with their transponders turned on. Other ships have likely switched off their transponders to quietly slip through the waterway undetected. But the mere threat of Iranian attacks could scare away enough ships to effectively shut down the strait. Pape explained that I