Albanese's budget won't be derailed by Trump's declarations

It's clear that whatever this unpredictable US president says, the Albanese government isn't expecting a return to normal oil flows any time soon. (AP: Matt Rourke) Link copiedShareShare articleListen to this storyLoadingSo that's it. The war's over, apparently. At least according to the Trump administration. "Operation Epic Fury is concluded," Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared yesterday. So why no dancing in the streets? Or at the petrol pumps? Why was there no reaction at all from the Australian government or other US allies, who have been urging an end to the conflict since, well, not long after it began? Because no one quite knows what to believe from the US when it comes to this war. Is it on? Is it off? Is the US still demanding Iran re-open the Strait of Hormuz and hand over uranium stockpiles? Or has this all become too difficult? Adding to the confusion is the status of the operation meant to replace "Epic Fury": the more optimistically titled "Project Freedom". Just hours after both Rubio and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth proudly detailed how this new "defensive" operation would finally get ships moving through the Strait again, Trump flipped the script. "Project Freedom", he announced, had been put on hold. The president is once more talking up the prospects of a "complete and final agreement" with Iran being struck soon. Treasurer Jim Chalmers stated himself this week, the economy is being "absolutely pummelled" by this war. (ABC News: Callum Flinn) Unsurprisingly, the Albanese government hasn't rushed back to the drawing board ahead of next week's budget. It's not re-working its plans in the expectation the Strait will soon be open, and oil ships sailing once more. The prime minister instead announced a $10 billion fuel security package. It's just the latest bill Australia is paying for what Trump calls his "excursion" in the Middle East. More than $10 billion will be spent bolstering Australia's fuel security, as the federal government attempts to shield the nation from the long-term consequences of the Iran war. The plan will see, for the first time, a government-owned stockpile of diesel and jet fuel built up over the next four years, at a cost of $3.2 billion. That's on top of an increased mandatory stockpile held by the industry, giving Australia a total reserve of 50 days of fuel. Another $7.5 billion in loans and guarantees will help secure more shipments of fuel and fertiliser. This package will "ensure energy sovereignty", said the prime minister, in something of an overstatement. Even with a 50-day stockpile, Australia will hardly have energy sovereignty. Treasurer Jim Chalmers stated himself this week, the economy is being "absolutely pummelled" by this war. Australians are "hostage" to decisions being made in Washington and Tehran, he said. The dependence on fuel imports won't suddenly disappear. Still, this is a major funding commitment. Much of the $10 billion will presumably sit "off budget" (we'll find out on budget night), but it's a big government spend, nonetheless. It's more than the $8.5 billion bulk-billing plan that formed the centrepiece of the Albanese government's re-election campaign last year. More than the $3 billion in student debt relief the government still talks about. More than the $2 billion aged care reforms. It's clear whatever this unpredictable US president says, the Albanese government isn't expecting a return to normal oil flows any time soon. Instead, it's betting taxpayers will be comfortable forking out $10 billion to improve fuel "resilience". "It's too little, too late," said Angus Taylor, suggesting the opposition wanted a bigger package. But there's an important note of difference between the two sides of politics. Taylor isn't comfortable with the government holding its own fuel reserve. "They're going to compete in the market with the private sector," he warned. The opposition leader announced his own plan last week for a 60-day fuel stockpile, at a cost to taxpayers of a mere $800 million. Fuel companies would instead pick up most of the tab, passing on a small increase in pump prices to motorists. It's an example of the different ideological approaches to what is now a bipartisan aim to boost sovereign capability and self-sufficiency. Labor is willing to use the government's balance sheet to directly intervene. Whether it's funding a bigger fuel stockpile or propping up what it deems to be critical industries, there's no hesitation in stepping into the market. Billions have already gone into keeping steelworks, aluminium, copper and lead smelters going. Billions more have been invested in clean energy, grid upgrades, and decarbonisation of heavy industries. Expect much more of this on budget night, under the banner of "sovereignty", "resilience", and a "Future Made in Australia". It's in line with a global trend towards greater government intervention. The Coalition, by contrast, wants to scrap many of

Albanese's budget won't be derailed by Trump's declarations

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Albanese's budget won't be derailed by Trump's declarations

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