The Phony Ceasefire: Calm Before The Storm?
Key takeaways
- Energy The Phony Ceasefire: Calm Before The Storm?By Ariel Cohen,
- The apparent ceasefire among the U.S., Israel, the Gulf states, and Iran bears an uncomfortable resemblance to an earlier period.
- The global energy market should be a key lens for evaluating this ceasefire.
Energy The Phony Ceasefire: Calm Before The Storm?By Ariel Cohen,
Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Ariel Cohen is a D.C.-based contributor who covers energy and security Follow Author Jul 02, 2026, 08:20am EDT--:-- / --:--This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (R) and commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Aerospace Force Amir Ali Hajizadeh look on as Iran's new Shahed 136-B drone is displayed during the annual military parade marking the anniversary of the outbreak of the 1980-1988 war with Saddam Hussein's Iraq, in Tehran on September 21, 2024. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP) (Photo by ATTA KENARE/AFP via Getty Images)AFP via Getty ImagesDuring the opening months of the Second World War, things moved slowly first in the period that became known as the Phony War, or Sitzkrieg in German. Following the fall of Poland in September 1939, and before Germany invaded Denmark and Norway in April 1940, the absence of sustained military operations created the illusion of normalcy. The conflict had not yet escalated, though the belligerents were planning, repositioning, replenishing, and preparing for the next phase. Despite the belligerents’ massive wartime potential, populations and policymakers were lulled into a false sense of control.
The apparent ceasefire among the U.S., Israel, the Gulf states, and Iran bears an uncomfortable resemblance to an earlier period. The underlying strategic dynamics, including Iranian aspirations to dominate the Middle East and, through it, gain significant leverage over Europe and the U.S., have not fundamentally changed. If anything, developments in recent weeks suggest that this pause may be an intermission before renewed confrontation. At least, that’s what the bellicose rhetoric from Tehran suggests.