Here are the 3 big things we're watching in the stock market for the week ahead

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Here are the 3 big things we're watching in the stock market for the week ahead Published Sun, May 17 202610:06 AM EDTZev Fima@zevfima Kevin Stankiewicz@in/kevin-stankiewicz-b5593466Here we go again: Nvidia earnings week is upon us. The world's most valuable company and the leading maker of artificial intelligence chips will deliver first-quarter earnings on Wednesday night. Of course, it will drive a ton of the action on Wall Street this week. But it's certainly not the only thing on our radar. A pair of other Club holdings also reports. Plus, Google has a hotly anticipated developer conference, where we expect AI updates to be on display. Here's a closer look (all revenue and estimates are via LSEG): 1. Retail earnings: Home Depot kicks off our week of Club earnings on Tuesday morning. Analysts at Morgan Stanley put it well in a note last week, saying the U.S. housing market "continues to bounce along the bottom." So, we aren't expecting to see an inflection point in Home Depot's results because mortgage rates and housing activity just haven't cooperated. The upshot is that the stock has been crushed since February, when the 30-year fixed mortgage rate started climbing higher, and now trades at multiyear lows. That means expectations for Home Depot's results are low. Wall Street expects Home Depot's same-store sales growth in the first quarter to be 0.8%, according to FactSet. When Home Depot reported Q4 results in February, it was just a few days before the start of the Iran war, which has muddied the economic backdrop and rekindled inflation. However, analysts at Bernstein said they do not expect Home Depot to revise its full-year guidance of flat to 2% same-store sales growth, as the forecast "contemplated a wide range of scenarios." Bernstein also said Home Depot's SRS Distribution subsidiary may benefit from storm-related repair activity in the quarter, so we'll look to see whether that proved true. Home Depot acquired SRS in 2024 as part of an aggressive push to court professional contractors who rely on wholesale distributors. It also just finalized the acquisition of an HVAC distributor. The rise in inflation has made it tougher for incoming Federal Reserve chief Kevin Warsh to cut interest rates quickly. But we're hanging on to Home Depot because, at some point, the housing market has to wake up. Revenue: $41.53 billion EPS: $3.41 Fellow retailer TJX Companies is up next on Wednesday morning. The big difference here is that the economic environment actually plays into TJX's hands as a retailer known for offering quality merchandise at great prices. If you're feeling strained by high gas prices but need a new pair of jeans, few places are better to go than T.J. Maxx or Marshalls. For that reason, we expect TJX to be relatively well-positioned to continue attracting shoppers. Consensus is for same-store sales growth of 4.1% in the quarter, and we want to continue seeing an increase in transactions driving that result. One thing to watch will be TJX's forward commentary on freight costs. In recent quarters, TJX's margins had benefited from declining freight rates. But they've gone the wrong way because of the Iran war. Overall, we remain confident in TJX as a worthy long-term stock, which is why we bought more shares on Friday. Keep in mind, when it comes to guidance, TJX executives like to underpromise and overdeliver. Revenue: $13.98 billion EPS: $1.01 2. Nvidia earnings: Now for the main event on Wednesday night. A "beat and raise" is the minimum requirement. That means Nvidia's reported results need to beat consensus, and its guidance for the current quarter needs to exceed expectations, prompting analysts to raise their estimates. This has been the bar for years now. And with Nvidia shares finally breaking out of a monthslong slumber to new highs, it certainly remains the case this time around. One problem Nvidia continues to confront: even when its results are great, some investors remain worried about the sustainability of the greatness. So, anything CEO Jensen Huang and CFO Colette Kress can do on Wednesday night to alleviate concerns that the investment cycle may soon slow will be key to the stock's reaction to the release. The market will also be listening to commentary on Nvidia's visibility into the $1 trillion sales forecast that Huang issued in March at its splashy GTC conference. That covered sales of its Blackwell and Rubin systems starting last year through 2027. No doubt, Nvidia faces growing competition in the AI chip space both from fellow graphics processing unit (GPU) maker Advanced Micro Devices and custom silicon providers like Broadcom and Marvell , which work with large tech companies to design specialized chips. But we want to hear Huang tackle this head-on and discuss energy ef