Iran Won the War but May Lose the Peace
Key takeaways
- NATE SWANSON is a Resident Senior Fellow and Director of the Iran Strategy Project at the Atlantic Council.
- When the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran in late February, the regime in Tehran was in an unprecedented position of weakness.
- President Donald Trump lost both the war and the negotiations to end it.
NATE SWANSON is a Resident Senior Fellow and Director of the Iran Strategy Project at the Atlantic Council. He served as Director for Iran at the National Security Council from 2022 to 2025. In the spring and summer of 2025, he served on the Trump administration’s Iran negotiating team.
When the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran in late February, the regime in Tehran was in an unprecedented position of weakness. It faced existential economic and environmental crises, diminished defensive capabilities, and internal turmoil and external scrutiny following a brutal January crackdown on protests that killed thousands of its own people. But after 40 days of war and two months of shaky cease-fire, the Islamic Republic has emerged intact, emboldened, and armed with a new deterrent that appears even more powerful than all the weapons its adversaries damaged with airstrikes: its control over the Strait of Hormuz. In late April, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged that the strait had become Iran's “economic nuclear weapon.” The world now understands that if Iran is attacked, it will shut the strait, disrupting energy markets worldwide.
Put plainly, U.S. President Donald Trump lost both the war and the negotiations to end it. But if Tehran overplays its hand, it could lose the peace that follows. The memorandum of understanding signed by Iran and the United States postpones the resolution of most of the difficult issues (including restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program) to a 60-day negotiating period. But the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will be far more difficult to finesse than most realize. The MOU will provide for the safe passage of commercial vessels at no charge for 60 days while Iran and, presumably, the United States seek to define the strait’s postwar administration. But whether a final deal is struck or not, Iran has made clear that it intends to impose new restrictions and fees on commercial vessels transiting the Strait after the negotiation period ends. Iran’s lead negotiator, Speaker of the Parliament Mohammad Ghalibaf, said outright that “the Strait of Hormuz will never return to its previous condition” and “naturally, we will charge fees in return for the services we provide.”