The 2022 Bitcoin Pattern Is Back — and the Second Drop Was Worse Than the First
Key takeaways
- Polymarket traders assign a 79% probability that Micro Strategy sells some Bitcoin by year-end 2026.
- The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 stocks and MicroStrategy wasn t one of them.
- Ran Neuner sat down with Scott Melker on The Wolf Of All Streets podcast and laid out a chart pattern that should make every Bitcoin bull pause.
The 2022 Bitcoin Pattern Is Back — and the Second Drop Was Worse Than the First TY Lim / Shutterstock.com Joel South Mon, May 25, 2026 at 3:37 AM GMT+7 4 min read MSTR BTC-USD NVDA STRC STRD Quick Read Micro Strategy (MSTR) holds 713,502 bitcoins with a $54.26B cost basis and reported a $12.44B net loss in Q4 2025 from unrealized digital asset losses, with the stock down 60% over the past year to $159.89. Polymarket traders assign a 79% probability that Micro Strategy sells some Bitcoin by year-end 2026.
Bitcoin’s current price action mirrors the 2022 bear flag pattern that preceded a deeper 62% capitulation, and a breakdown below the 200-day moving average could push Bitcoin to $40K or lower, forcing MicroStrategy to choose between margin pressure and discretionary asset sales.
The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 stocks and MicroStrategy wasn t one of them. Get them here FREE.