Asia Braces for Extreme Weather Under Strong El Niño Impact

Asia is bracing for a strong El Niño, a development that could drive up energy demand, weaken hydropower generation, and threaten agricultural output. The World Meteorological Organisation has indicated that El Niño conditions may begin forming between May and July. Early indicators suggest the episode could be particularly intense, with some observers informally calling it a “super El Niño,” though that term lacks scientific classification. The phenomenon, which occurs every two to seven years, disrupts global weather systems by altering wind patterns, air pressure, and rainfall distribution. According to the experts, current subsurface ocean temperature patterns resemble those seen during the powerful 1997–98 event—one of the strongest on record. However, uncertainties remain, and the phenomenon may not fully materialise. The looming climate risk coincides with ongoing disruptions to global energy supplies, partly linked to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for oil and gas shipments. Supply constraints have raised concerns about fuel shortages and economic strain across Asia. Experts warn that rising temperatures could further burden already stretched power systems, as demand for cooling surges. Countries reliant on Hormuz-linked imports may face fuel rationing, reduced industrial activity, and slower economic growth. Hydropower-dependent nations are also at risk. Many ASEAN countries, which rely heavily on water-based energy sources, could be disrupted by drought conditions. Agriculture is another sector under threat. Higher temperatures and reduced rainfall could strain crop production, especially as farmers already face rising costs for fuel and fertilisers. Analysts warn that if crop prices fail to keep pace, profit margins will shrink, potentially leading to lower yields and worsening food insecurity. In some areas, El Niño can also bring intense rainfall and flooding, posing additional risks to crops such as late-season rice in southern China