100,000 computer simulations picked this country to win the World Cup

In times past, when we wanted to know which team would win the World Cup, we had to turn to seers with crystal balls, use divination via tea leaves, or hope for Paul the Octopus to tell us what would happen. But modern data science can provide a better alternative. As part of a team of statisticians, I helped train a machine learning algorithm to predict the most likely course of the tournament. Probabilistic forecasts and loaded dice. The algorithm we built proceeds in two steps. In the first, sophisticated statistical models and expert insight from bookmakers and transfer markets are combined to determine the strengths of all teams and their players. In the second step, a machine learning algorithm decides how to best combine the strength estimates with other information about the teams. This produced a probabilistic forecast for each possible match in the tournament. It can be thought of as a pair of loaded dice: Instead of having the numbers 1 to 6 with equal probabilities, these loaded dice have different probabilities for the number of goals for either team. For example, according to our forecast, Mexico has a die rolling 1.9 goals on average in the opening match, whereas opponent South Africa has an average of only 0.7. But this does not mean that Mexico will surely win. Rather, a win for Mexico is the most likely outcome with 65% probability. A draw is less likely (21%), and a win for South Africa is the least likely outcome (14%). “¡Vuelve a casa, el fútbol vuelve a casa!” Using different pairs of loaded dice, the result of each match in the World Cup can be simulated. We took into account the official tournament draw and all FIFA rules, including the possibility of overtime and penalty shoot-outs. We ran the simulation 100,000 times to determine the tournament’s most likely course. The results show that Spain is the favorite for the title with a winning probability of 14.5%, closely followed by England and France, each at 12.4%, and Germany at 1