Will Kevin O’Leary’s massive Utah data center actually get built? Don’t count on it, says this energy analyst

A Utah data center proposed by Shark Tank investor Kevin O’Leary is expected to be massive. The project—called Stratos but also referred to as Wonder Valley—would be 40,000 acres, or roughly double the size of Manhattan. It could consume up to 9 GW of power, which is more than double the entire state’s average electricity use. That is, if it ever gets built. Right now, the reality of a 9 GW Utah data center doesn’t seem all that likely to Olivia Wang, a research analyst at Sightline Climate, an energy transition intelligence firm. Or at least, she says, not “at anything close” to the scale currently being talked about. “There is no precedent for a developer pulling off an off-grid project of this size yet,” Wang says via email, “and the project has none of the building blocks in place that would make us think otherwise.” Sightline Climate has analyzed proposed data center projects previously. The company has more than 1,000 hyperscale data center projects around the world in its pipeline database, and scores them on certain factors to predict if they’ll actually get built. Right now, Wang says, the model puts the likelihood of Wonder Valley actually materializing at “roughly 15%.” ‘Wonder Valley comes up short’ Sightline Climate looks at factors including how far along the data center project is in development, if power has been sourced and financing secured, whether any tenants have signed on, and so on. “Wonder Valley comes up short on every single one at the moment,” Wang says. Despite reporting by The Logic that said construction would start this year, with a first operating phase by 2027, there is no construction activity yet. The Stratos Project website currently says that Phase 1 construction will occur from 2026 to 2028. The full buildout, including the 9 GW of capacity and about 90 data center buildings, is listed on the timeline under “2030+.” Though O’Leary told the Desert News that “we’ve got tenants knocking on our door,” there’s not yet pub