Goldman maintains bullish gold outlook as central bank buying forecasts rise
Key takeaways
- The investment bank revised its internal tracking model for central bank gold demand after concluding that it had consistently understated buying activity since August 2025.
- According to the revised model, central banks are estimated to have purchased 66 tonnes of gold in January, a sharp increase from the previous estimate of 12 tonnes.
- Goldman said the adjustment follows a widening discrepancy between declining gold inventories in London vaults and official U.K. trade figures.
Goldman maintains bullish gold outlook as central bank buying forecasts rise Fiona Craig Mon, May 25, 2026 at 9:10 PM GMT+7 2 min read GC=F gold nugget ©Needpix.com Goldman Sachs has reaffirmed its positive stance on gold, keeping its year-end forecast of $5,400 per troy ounce after increasing its estimates for central bank demand and predicting that official-sector purchases will continue accelerating throughout the remainder of 2026.
The investment bank revised its internal tracking model for central bank gold demand after concluding that it had consistently understated buying activity since August 2025. Under the updated methodology, the 12-month moving average estimate rose to 50 tonnes per month as of March, compared with 29 tonnes under the earlier calculation.
According to the revised model, central banks are estimated to have purchased 66 tonnes of gold in January, a sharp increase from the previous estimate of 12 tonnes.