A year on, stalemate persists

A YEAR after the May 2025 conflict, the India-Pakistan relationship remains volatile. Diplomacy is frozen. Neither side has sought to break the deadlock. A war of words erupts every so often. Last week, it was over the water dispute. Then it was on the Kashmir dispute at the UN. Bilateral relations are at one of the lowest points in their tortured history. Last month saw speculation about the revival of dialogue. It was triggered by voices from India calling for talks. RSS general secretary Datta­treya Hosabale urged engagement. A former army chief and ex-head of RAW agreed. Leaders from occupied Kashmir chimed in. Pakistan’s foreign ministry spokesman responded quickly but cautiously. Describing this as a “positive development” he said it was the official Indian line that mattered. Speculation grew that Delhi may be testing the waters with its no-talks posture coming under increasing questioning at home. But it quickly died. There was no official Indian statement. The opposition Congress party attacked the government for “softening” on Pakistan. India-Pakistan relations snapped back to their default mode of a tense stand-off. In fact, even track two engagement between former officials over the past year has seen no movement. Just reiterations of familiar positions. Suggestions by the Pakistani side for backchannel communication found no traction from the Indians. The Modi government, they said, was averse to any formal or informal dialogue. India and Pakistan can’t afford another crisis and need a backchannel to prevent one. Meanwhile, water has emerged as the new arena of India-Pakistan confrontation. Delhi had suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in April 2025, in the immediate aftermath of the terrorist incident in Pahalgam in occupied Kashmir. After the four-day India-Pakistan military clash, Indian officials repeatedly declared Pakistan would not get a single drop from ‘India’s rivers’. Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to make Pakistan “feel the heat” on