The 30-year fixed mortgage was supposed to be predictable. Two costs quietly broke that promise

Potential homebuyers tend to agonize over two things: mortgage rates and home prices. But that’s not where the burden of homeownership ends. It’s really just the beginning. Buyers will lock in a rate, sign at closing, and assume the hard part of buying a house is over, but many things can go wrong, and there are many hidden homeownership costs that not everyone stops to consider. For example, a recent survey of 2,500 U.S. homeowners from Ownwell, a property tax appeal service, found 76% say their property taxes in recent years have run higher than they budgeted for—up 10 percentage points from just a year earlier. Nearly two-thirds said they were surprised or shocked by their most recent tax bill, and 9 in 10 said they’re concerned about the long-term financial hit of rising property taxes. And even more startling is 40% said they had considered moving specifically because of them. “Taxes have quietly joined insurance as one of the biggest affordability shocks after closing, especially in states with high property taxes like New York, Massachusetts, and Texas,” Ownwell CEO Colton Pace told Fortune. These new stats point to an affordability problem the usual housing conversation misses. While it’s more accessible (albeit sometimes painful) to monitor mortgage rates and home prices, recurring expenses like taxes, insurance, maintenance, and other line items that nobody mentions at the closing table are quietly reshaping what it actually costs to keep a home. “The fixed-rate mortgage was supposed to be the one predictable cost in your life,” Pace said. “Rising insurance and property taxes have quietly broken that promise.” The unpredictability of homeownership A 30-year fixed mortgage is the rare household bill that doesn’t change month-over-month or year-over-year—but the taxes and insurance bundled into the monthly payment do. Every year, taxes and insurance can change a county-by-county schedule or at renewal, respectively. “Homeo