De la Espriella leads Colombia's runoff with contained triumphalism as Cepeda hopes for a late surge
Key takeaways
- Both campaigns sense the election is closer than the polls reflect.
- Right-wing candidate Paloma Valencia, third at the time, later endorsed the front-runner.
- The first-round margin does not look comfortable heading into the runoff.
Why this matters: an international story with cross-border implications worth tracking.
Right-wing lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella heads into Colombia's presidential runoff, set for this Sunday, June 21, as the favorite, though with contained triumphalism, while left-wing senator Iv n Cepeda trusts that a late push can still overturn the result. Both campaigns sense the election is closer than the polls reflect.
Most surveys give De la Espriella a lead —an Atlas Intel poll for Semana magazine put him at 52.2% against Cepeda's 44.5%— in line with his victory in the first round on May 31, when he beat his rival by some 632,222 votes (43.7% to 40.9%). Right-wing candidate Paloma Valencia, third at the time, later endorsed the front-runner. Analysts, however, recall that polls are a snapshot of the moment and not a definitive result. Let's not get overconfident; this is not won with polls, warned De la Espriella's campaign chief, former senator Mauricio G mez Am n.
The first-round margin does not look comfortable heading into the runoff. Close to three million votes from other candidates and more than 400,000 blank votes are up for grabs, along with a possible rise in turnout, like the one that defined Gustavo Petro's election in 2022. Also weighing in is the departure of some 80,000 Colombians to follow the national team at the World Cup: the overseas vote, which began this week, set off alarms in De la Espriella's camp, which fears that a sense of early victory could demobilize its voters.