Why you should trade for Guerrero Jr., Tucker or J...
Key takeaways
- That was his fewest in any month (if we combine March/April and September/October) since September of his rookie year in 2019.
- He has been annually hailed as a reliable "strong return on investment" pick, but this year, he's on pace for only 356 fantasy points.
- But Guerrero's contact quality has dipped, as Statcast registers his hard-hit rate at more than 6% below his 2025 number, his Barrel rate more than 5% below and average exit velocity nearly 2 mph down.
Why this matters: a sports story that could shift standings, legacies, or fan conversations.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has only hit half as many home runs this season as he did throughout his entire postseason in 2025. Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images Tristan H. Cockcroft Jul 1, 2026, 12:00 PM ETClose Tristan H. Cockcroft is senior writer for fantasy baseball and football at ESPN. Tristan is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. He is also a two-time LABR and three-time Tout Wars champion.Follow on XMultiple Authors Email Print Open Extended Reactions Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is one of only three players with at least 800 hits, 100 home runs and 1,500 total bases in the five seasons preceding this one (also: Shohei Ohtani, Jose Ramirez). He's the defending ALCS Most Valuable Player and, if there had been an MVP of the ALDS and, had his Toronto Blue Jays emerged victorious in the World Series, he might have had an MVP award clean sweep. Guerrero hit eight home runs in last year's postseason, tied for the second-most by any player in a single postseason.
However, in a 2026 season that feels like it's been filled with unbelievable twists, this one might take the cake: Through 81 games played, Guerrero has hit half as many home runs (4) and has an OPS 594 points lower than he did in those 18 postseason games in 2025.
It gets worse! Guerrero scored only 38 fantasy points in June. That was his fewest in any month (if we combine March/April and September/October) since September of his rookie year in 2019. Among the hitters who scored more this June are Jonah Heim, Nick Loftin, Javier Sanoja, Samad Taylor and Donovan Walton. Not one of them has been started in as many as 7% of ESPN leagues on a single day all year.