Extreme climate scenario fades, but warming continues
Key takeaways
- The rapid rollout of renewable energy is helping to shift emissions trends, but expected temperature rises remain high as the UN moves to tighten countries' commitments.
- But a scientific paper published in April says that doomsday pathway — known as RCP8.5 and later SSP5-8.5 — is now less probable.
- Climate researcher Detlef Van Vuuren, lead author of the new paper, told UK-based climate science platform Carbon Brief that it had always been a "low-probability, high-risk scenario."
Why this matters: an international story with cross-border implications worth tracking.
The rapid rollout of renewable energy is helping to shift emissions trends, but expected temperature rises remain high as the UN moves to tighten countries' commitments.
https://p.dw.com/p/5E5Ef Scientists warn that even without the worst-case climate scenario, rising temperatures will intensify droughts, heat waves and water scarcity worldwide Image: Channi Anand/AP Photo/picture alliance Advertisement For years, a worst-case climate scenario served as a stark warning of what could happen if the world failed to curb fossil fuel use. A temperature rise of more than 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century would bring with it catastrophic consequences, including deadly heat waves, rising seas, crop failures and mass displacement.
But a scientific paper published in April says that doomsday pathway — known as RCP8.5 and later SSP5-8.5 — is now less probable. Designed as a benchmark to help governments prepare for dangerous possibilities, the worst-case scenario was not a prediction.