Situationer: Wheat policy failures deepen market crisis

THE national wheat sector has once again entered a deep economic and policy crisis, exposing structural weaknesses in agricultural planning, procurement management and food security governance. What initially appeared to be a routine procurement season has evolved into a confrontation between market realities and administrative controls, with farmers, flour millers and policymakers locked in uncertainty. Taking stock of the situation, Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz this Thursday ordered strict action against traders who fail to declare their wheat stocks within two weeks — a move reflecting official concern over the size of the 2025-26 crop and fears of rising flour prices in the coming months. The directive comes amid reports of lower wheat production and accelerated speculative buying by traders and investors anticipating future shortages and higher prices. Officials fear undeclared private stocks, combined with weak public reserves, could further fuel inflation. Punjab Agriculture Department says average wheat yield this year remained around 33 maunds per acre, while official assessments indicate Punjab’s production fell short by three to 10 per cent. Sector analysts believe the national crop may be more than 20 per cent below annual requirements — a worrying deficit at a time of volatile global grain markets due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East. Poor procurement planning, rising input costs and inconsistent intervention have intensified uncertainty across Pakistan’s wheat sector Ironically, wheat stocks held by the Pakistan Agricultural Storage and Services Corporation Ltd (Passco) and provincial food departments are considered insufficient to bridge the expected gap. Analysts say delayed procurement decisions, contradictory policies and uncertainty over stock regulations have further destabilised the market. At the centre of the crisis lies a basic contradiction: the government attempted to control a market that had already