Why are people so scared of causing fear?
An odd aspect of discussing serious threats is the amount of concern people express about you causing other people to be concerned. This kind of makes sense for interlocutors who don’t believe in the threat itself, or think it is overblown (though in that case it is perhaps strange to focus on altruistic concern for potential frightened onlookers rather than the object-level disagreement). But often the person is not actually disputing the threat, they purportedly just want to protect the public from fear, or avoid causing ‘panic’. A memorable case: on what was to be one of the last normal weekends in 2020, I took an Uber with a friend to an event. On the way we discussed the rising warnings of an international pandemic and our preparations. But my friend wanted us to talk more discreetly, lest we scare the Uber driver. Why on Earth would it be bad to scare the Uber driver? My friend believed as much as I did that a real and deadly virus was spreading and there was an imminent risk of this affecting us all, including the Uber driver. Didn’t the Uber driver have an interest in knowing about it? Wasn’t it, if anything, our responsibility to tell the Uber driver? Is the concern that, as a normal person, the Uber driver is incompetent to manage himself, and will just scream and run around or buy poorly selected prepper equipment? In conversations about AI risk, I sometimes see the same thing. Geoffrey Hinton says he thinks there’s a 10-20% chance of human extinction, and some people seem genuinely most concerned is that maybe the press didn’t add enough disclaimers about the process by which he reached that number, and the public may get unnecessarily worried. I agree it would be non-ideal if people were 20%-level worried when they would only endorse being 7% worried on further methodological inspection. But among non-ideal aspects of a situation where most of the relevant scientists believe their field is heading toward a modest-to-strong shot at killing us, it’s inter