Russia Makes Inroads in Southeast Asia

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Southeast Asia Brief. The highlights this week: ASEAN leaders head to Russia to talk energy, the Philippines worries about China’s designs on Scarborough Shoal, Uyghurs sentenced in dubious Thai trial, and the line that went viral from a Malaysian court judgment on former Prime Minister Najib Razak. Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Southeast Asia Brief. The highlights this week: ASEAN leaders head to Russia to talk energy, the Philippines worries about China’s designs on Scarborough Shoal, Uyghurs sentenced in dubious Thai trial, and the line that went viral from a Malaysian court judgment on former Prime Minister Najib Razak. Last week’s ASEAN-Russia Commemorative Summit in Kazan illustrates how the Iran war and subsequent energy shock have strengthened Russia’s diplomatic inroads in the region. Nine Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) heads of state and government attended the summit on June 17-18. A number also met directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Since its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has deepened its diplomatic engagement with Southeast Asia, with energy—oil and gas or nuclear—a key part of its offer. ASEAN’s attitude toward Russia following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was equivocal, reflecting a wide range of opinion among the various member states. Most have at various times voted at the United Nations to condemn the invasion, with Laos and Vietnam the only habitual abstentions. And the last ASEAN-Russia summit was in 2021, prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, an ASEAN foreign ministers’ statement following the invasion called for peace and talks but failed to mention the words “Russia” or “invasion.” Only Singapore imposed any sanctions. This year, attitudes seem to have softened further. Energy—top of the agenda following the Iran war—was a recurring theme. Staunch U.S. ally President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines, acting as ASEAN chair, put on a friendly face and met with Putin. “In an era of deepening geopolitical uncertainty, the value of steady political and security engagement between ASEAN and Russia cannot be overstated,” Marcos declared. He emphasized food and energy security as of particular importance, as well as calling for cooperation against transnational crime and terrorism. A joint Russia-ASEAN statement after the conference called for finding areas of cooperation in civilian nuclear energy and the ASEAN Power Grid. Another statement called for ASEAN and Russia to “explore” setting up a dialogue mechanism on maritime cooperation. On a bilateral level, Marcos told media that Russia and the Philippines were working on a mechanism for the latter to purchase Russian oil on a regular basis. He also said he was open to cooperation on nuclear energy. And he also talked up the possibility of visa-free travel for Russians to the Philippines. Meanwhile, Russia made a show of good will, releasing 24 Filipinos detained for nine months without charges in eastern Siberia. Also making headlines was Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, long a critic of U.S. foreign policy, who said that the ASEAN leaders meeting Putin was a “good sign of our centrality and our preparedness to overcome these inherent prejudices.” This is Anwar’s third visit to Russia in three years. Returning to Malaysia, Anwar told the press the two countries were working on a long-term agreement for Russia to supply oil and gas to Malaysia. Meanwhile, longtime Russian friends Laos and Vietnam took the opportunity to further deepen ties. Vietnamese Prime Minister Le Minh Hung highlighted energy, fertilizer, and tech as key areas of cooperation. In March, the two countries signed an agreement to cooperate on building a nuclear power plant in Vietnam. Laos also signed an agreement to explore the building of a Russian-designed nuclear power plant. Thailand and Cambodia are both looking to boost trade ties via an agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union, a trade bloc that includes Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia, and Kyrgyzstan. Singapore’s prime minister, Lawrence Wong, making his first visit to Russia, also met with Putin, saying he wanted to see more Russia-ASEAN cooperation, and that he would work on this next year when Singapore serves as ASEAN chair. There was a mild shot across the bow. Wong emphasized the importance of adherence to international law in the face of geopolitical instability, according to Singapore’s foreign ministry. Though in the context of the Iran strikes, this cuts more than one way. Indonesia cut an unusually low profile. President Prabowo Subianto, whose term has been marked by numerous trips abroad, stayed at home, sending Foreign Minister Sugiono in his place as economic conditions at home look rocky. Is China about to seize Scarborough? China may be gearing up to take permanent control of Scarborough Shoal, warned Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilbert Teodoro in an interview with the F

Russia Makes Inroads in Southeast Asia

Key takeaways

More in publications