The S&P 500 Lost 40% in Real Terms from 1968 to 1982. History Says It Could Happen Again.
Key takeaways
- The S&P 500 Lost 40% in Real Terms from 1968 to 1982.
- On a recent episode of Thoughtful Money with host Adam Taggart, derivatives and macro investor Cem Karsan delivered the precedent in one sentence.
- The index sat there for the better part of two presidential terms while inflation quietly stripped almost half the purchasing power out of every dollar parked in it.
The S&P 500 Lost 40% in Real Terms from 1968 to 1982. History Says It Could Happen Again. Alive Color Stock / Shutterstock.com Jeremy Phillips Mon, June 1, 2026 at 7:32 PM GMT+7 5 min read ^GSPC SPY Although the bull case has rarely sounded louder, with one-year gains running hot and the index pressing new highs, Wall Street has a long memory, and that memory is not kind to stretched valuations that meet an inflation regime. The benchmark S&P 500 sits at $745.64 on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) proxy as of May 22, 2026, up 28% over the trailing year and 9% year-to-date. However, the most uncomfortable chapter in modern equity history says the next decade can look nothing like the last one, even if the ticker tape never breaks.
On a recent episode of Thoughtful Money with host Adam Taggart, derivatives and macro investor Cem Karsan delivered the precedent in one sentence. "From 1968 to 82, 14 years. You know what the S&P 500 did from 1968 to 82? This blows most people s minds. It went nowhere in nominal terms, but nominal is not the important part... in real returns, it lost 40% of its value," Karsan said.
The index sat there for the better part of two presidential terms while inflation quietly stripped almost half the purchasing power out of every dollar parked in it.