U.S. would only break Iranian ceasefire if there was ‘absolutely no alternative,’ says Deutsche Bank—this weekend was a warning shot

A year ago, U.S. strikes against Iran would have had analysts running for the hills. In 2026, they’re barely raising an eyebrow.

On Monday, the U.S. military carried out action near the Strait of Hormuz, claiming self-defense rather than signaling an end to the ceasefire. In response, NBC News reported Iran’s Revolutionary Guard vowed today to “respond decisively to any violation of the ceasefire.”

Despite the potential knock to negotiations, economists remained relatively sanguine this morning. ”The market looks minded to continue pricing de-escalation in the Middle East – notwithstanding some occasional surgical strikes from the U.S.,” wrote ING’s Chris Turner.