Penalty Shootouts: Is the Team That Kicks First More Likely to Win?
Key takeaways
- While much of the strategic thinking around penalty kicks focuses on the order in which the players kick, it’s also important to note the psychological pressures as well.
- For years, the prevailing explanation was psychological.
- However, as databases grew and more researchers began studying the phenomenon, that advantage began to diminish.
Why this matters: a development in AI with implications for how people work, create, and decide.
A penalty kick during the Netherlands’ round of 32 match against Morocco.Photograph: Carl Recine/Getty Images Comment Loader Save Story Save this story Comment Loader Save Story Save this story In a World Cup, some of the most important matches are decided by a penalty shootout. When that moment comes, the captains want to win the coin toss to decide the order of the kicks. The reason is an old belief: that regardless of the skill of the shooter and the goalkeeper, the team that takes the first penalty kick is more likely to win. Most soccer players take this for granted, but the reasons behind this apparent advantage remain a subject of scientific debate.n
While much of the strategic thinking around penalty kicks focuses on the order in which the players kick, it’s also important to note the psychological pressures as well. During this year’s World Cup, two of the first four round-of-32 matches—Paraguay’s win over Germany and Morocco’s defeat of the Netherlands—have been decided by these highly tense shootouts.
For years, the prevailing explanation was psychological. According to this hypothesis, the team that takes the first penalty kick plays with less pressure, while the second team must constantly respond to avoid falling behind on the scoreboard. That emotional burden ultimately affects the players’ performance. A study published in 2010 in the American Economic Review became the benchmark on the subject, reporting that teams that started the shootout won nearly 60 percent of the time, compared to 40 percent for those who took their penalty kicks second.