Americans Are Trading Billions of Dollars on Polymarket’s Banned Offshore Platform
Key takeaways
- The study, conducted by Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane, estimated that people in the US funneled between $10.6 to $26.7 billion through Polymarket.
- The Coalition for Prediction Markets, a lobbying group on behalf of the industry, commissioned and funded the study, though Crane maintained editorial control.
- It has partnered with US-based media companies like Substack and Dow Jones, as well as American sports leagues like Major League Baseball and the National Hockey League.
Why this matters: a development in AI with implications for how people work, create, and decide.
Photo-Illustration: Jobanny Cabrera; Getty Images Comment Loader Save Story Save this story Comment Loader Save Story Save this story Approximately 30 percent of the trading volume on Polymarket comes from the United States, according to a new study—an eye-popping number, considering that none of those people are legally allowed to use the crypto-based platform.
The study, conducted by Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane, estimated that people in the US funneled between $10.6 to $26.7 billion through Polymarket. To track the platform’s activity, Crane looked at what appeared to be US-based trades on offshore prediction market platforms from May 2025 to the end of April 2026. He found that many of the highest-volume markets on Polymarket were US-centric, including those covering US elections and sporting events. US-based traders appeared to participate on Polymarket’s sports vertical at especially high rates; the study estimated that they accounted for roughly half of the activity in those markets.
“It’s been known that there are individuals on there, but what hasn’t been known is the extent, whether it’s one or 10 or an actually appreciable fraction,” says Crane, who is also a member of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Innovation Advisory Committee, a panel that offers federal regulators guidance on how technology impacts markets. The Coalition for Prediction Markets, a lobbying group on behalf of the industry, commissioned and funded the study, though Crane maintained editorial control. Kalshi, Coinbase, Crypto.com, and other major prediction market players are members of this group. Polymarket is not.