From Pahalgam to Marka-e-Haq: Redefining strategic balance in South Asia

Madiha Munir. It has been a year since the once-idyllic resort of Pahalgam was transformed from a picturesque destination into the epicentre of a geopolitical cataclysm. The year since April 2015 has shown that while the Indian establishment initially tried to exploit the crisis as a stepping-stone to a definitive war with Pakistan, the reality on the ground is quite the opposite. One year on, the hard facts are indisputable: the Indian narrative of “Pakistan cannot survive, much less win, a high-intensity conventional conflict” has been shattered. New Delhi’s military planners have long lived by the hubris of “escalation dominance”. This postulate was based on the assumptions that India could exercise its “first-strike advantage” below the nuclear threshold, knowing Pakistan had neither the conventional depth nor the will to exact full retaliation. Yet, the reaction to the ill-conceived Operation Sindoor, designed to test Pakistan’s military response, was a masterclass in why such thinking is not only perilous but also strategically unsound. The conflict officially kicked off on May 7, 2025, with India’s missile strikes on alleged non-state terrorists. But, as the dust settled, it became clear that the targets were mostly civilians: forty Pakistanis, including women and children, had been martyred in the uninvited strikes. The international community expected a retaliation; instead, it got a showcase of contemporary, full-spectrum warfare – Marka-e-Haq. Pakistan’s Armed Forces launched a retaliatory strike named Operation Bunyan-un-Marsoos that was both surgical and deadly. As India gawked at the supposedly unbeatable French Rafale jets, reality set in. It was reported that several Indian aircraft had been shot down, later confirmed by major international actors, effectively eroding India’s air superiority. It was not only a defensive strike, but a pre-emptive strike on India’s offensive capability. The magnitude of the loss to the Indian army was all inclusiv