The Strait of Hormuz Has Been Closed for 100 Days. Why Aren’t Oil Prices Higher?
Key takeaways
- “No one’s experienced this kind of disruption,” said Matt Stanley, head of market engagement at Kpler, the commodity intelligence and ship-tracking firm.
- There are ways to detect portions of outgoing oil anyway.
- Stanley says it’s possible that 100 million barrels made it through the Strait of Hormuz since the first of May.
Why this matters: a development in AI with implications for how people work, create, and decide.
Photo Illustration: NADIA MÈNDEZ; GETTY IMAGESComment Loader Save Story Save this story Comment Loader Save Story Save this story Last week, President Donald Trump claimed a secret US mission had moved 100 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz while it was blockaded. The claim landed in an industry already consumed by the question of how much oil is actually getting out—and nobody, it turns out, can answer that with confidence.
“No one’s experienced this kind of disruption,” said Matt Stanley, head of market engagement at Kpler, the commodity intelligence and ship-tracking firm. The reason the numbers are so hard to pin down is what the industry calls the dark trade—vessels running without their AIS transponders on, moving at night, closer to the Omani border, sometimes with naval escort.
There are ways to detect portions of outgoing oil anyway. Different grades of crude can only originate from specific fields. The UAE’s Murban crude can be exported via Fujairah, outside the strait. Another type of crude, Upper Zakum, cannot. One oil market analyst noted that their team has seen Upper Zakum crude oil appear in other markets. Those sightings are happening, yet the scale remains unknown.