New leader, old problem for WA Liberals as Zempilas flirts with One Nation

Basil Zempilas says he has "open mind" about working with One Nation. (ABC News: Keane Bourke ) Link copiedShareShare articleBasil Zempilas's flirtation with One Nation is a classic example of how the more things change in politics, the more they stay the same. Addressing a business breakfast on Monday, the opposition leader — unprompted — declared leaders needed to understand ignoring One Nation "would be to ignore the will of the people". He had an "open mind" about a relationship with the maybe not-so-minor party, which upon further probing was revealed to range from preference deals to forming a coalition government. Zempilas tackled the issue of One Nation's growing popularity in a speech to a business breakfast. (ABC News: Keane Bourke) One Nation was not a threat, he insisted, but "an opportunity" to unseat Labor. "If people's frustration in Western Australia is so elevated that they are in a mood for change, as the leader of the Liberal-National alliance … I would be derelict in my duty not to look at all options to help bring that about," Zempilas added. The One Nation conundrum has long troubled the Liberals. In the early 2000s, John Howard was uncompromising in his view that One Nation should be last on every Liberal how-to-vote card. The question of how to deal with Pauline Hanson's One Nation has long troubled the Liberals. (ABC News: Che Chorley ) By the 2017 state election though, Howard was backing the WA Liberals' decision to do a preference deal. It was one which then-premier Colin Barnett spent his final days in the job growing increasingly frustrated at having to defend. "The One Nation party may get 10 per cent, to 10 per cent or more of the vote, so I have to recognise that reality," he told the ABC at the time. The deal ended up making an already uphill battle even harder for Barnett, whose party lost 18 seats in a Labor landslide. The attention devoted to defending the One Nation deal, rather than discussing actual policies, as well as the perception it created, were seen to have contributed to the result. The former premier of Western Australia says the Morrison Government would be ill-advised to repeat his mistake of doing a preference deal with One Nation at the election. In the wash-up, ABC election guru Antony Green said One Nation's preferences did not change a single result in any lower house seat, while Liberal preferences played no part in One Nation's upper house wins. Barnett later told the ABC it would be "incredibly foolish" for federal Liberals to try a similar deal, describing the attempt in WA as "incredibly damaging". Zempilas is the latest Liberal leader to try and rebuild a party that has struggled to find its feet since that 2017 drubbing. Zempilas is seeking to help the WA Liberals back from the political doldrums. (ABC News: Keane Bourke) He has attempted to distance himself from One Nation's more extreme policies, saying: "There are lots of things that I have seen and heard from One Nation that I wouldn't say or be involved in." The party has changed, Zempilas believes, and so too have voters' attitudes. Which is true: the current poll results are record-breaking. The flip side is that they are just poll results, years out from an election, which could change very quickly. Rod Caddies, One Nation's leader in WA, doesn't think that will happen. Rod Caddies says he feels confident of winning seats in the next state election. (ABC News: Keane Bourke) "In the past we've had little climbs and drops but this has been a continuing trajectory that's heading up," he told the ABC. It's left him certain the party will win lower house seats at the next poll in 2029. The attention from the Liberals is welcome, Caddies said, but won't be changing his party's direction. "If Liberals decide that's the direction they are heading too, then there's a possibility of anything happening in the future," he said, noting he hadn't discussed the idea with Zempilas. The calculation Zempilas's Liberals will be weighing up over the years leading up to the 2029 election — informed by the results of four other state elections in the meantime — is whether the risks are worth any potential rewards. The calculation Zempilas's Liberals will be weighing up over the years ahead — informed by the results of four other state elections in the meantime — is whether the risks are worth any potential rewards. One Nation has soared in popularity over the past 12 months. (ABC News: Danielle Bonica ) In 2017, One Nation was polling in the mid-teens in the state — less than half what the party is currently. That could dull the effectiveness of any of Labor's attacks. Long-time WA political observer, Peter Kennedy, said the red team shouldn't forget the ramifications of One Nation's rise will impact their side too. Peter Kennedy says the rise of One Nation is driven by dissatisfaction with the major parties. (ABC News: Keane Bourke) "The rise of One Nation's being driven

New leader, old problem for WA Liberals as Zempilas flirts with One Nation

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