The U.S. and Iran Might Actually Have a Deal

If it feels as though Washington and Tehran have been on the verge of a deal before, it’s because they have. At least 38 times during the months of negotiations to end the war in Iran, President Trump has suggested that an agreement was within reach, only for new disputes, military escalations, or competing narratives to push the finish line further away.Diplomacy has unfolded against a backdrop of strikes and counterstrikes, threats of wider conflict, and cease-fires that Trump has defined as “shooting in a more moderate manner.” The president has made a stream of public claims that were subsequently contradicted by events, sometimes only hours later. Even today, after senior administration officials said that negotiators have largely settled the text of a memorandum of understanding, the agreement remains unsigned.The latest proposed deal would combine nuclear restrictions, economic incentives, and a broader regional de-escalation effort. It would specifically address the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; Iran would end its disruption of shipping traffic and, in exchange, eventually receive access to frozen assets and phased sanctions-relief on its oil exports. It would also start the clock on negotiations over the fate of Iran’s nuclear material, and establish a framework under which Iran could receive financial incentives if it fulfills its obligations. Negotiators have made substantial progress in recent weeks and have drafted language that both sides appear prepared to accept, although no signing date or location has been finalized. “We’re not quite at the finish line yet, but we are very close,” a senior Trump-administration official told reporters on the condition of anonymity in a call this afternoon. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, confirmed on X that the two sides are close to an agreement, and his ministry said that most issues have been resolved. Even a temporary deal might allow Trump to declare the war effectively over. It would also enable