If you’re surprised by how well the stock market is doing, so is Jamie Dimon—he says there’s a ‘little tsunami’ heading for the economy

Markets across the world have had plenty to worry about in the past decade. A global pandemic, a major war between Ukraine and Russia in Europe, steady inflation across major economies, including the U.S., rising tensions between China and the U.S., and, most recently, a conflict in the Middle East. And yet the S&P 500 is up nearly 80% over the past five years, the Nasdaq up more than 86%. Even with the global oil supply shock in over the past three-plus months, Wall Street has remained bullish—thanks, in large part, to the promise of artificial intelligence. If investors are surprised by seeing their portfolios continue to tick up in the face of such headwinds, so is JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon. The Wall Street veteran admitted he’s a little taken aback by the market’s apparent complacency at present. Speaking in a discussion held by the Council on Foreign Relations, Dimon said: “I am surprised because I think that you have Ukraine, Iran, oil, Russia, and our relationship with China. That stuff is really important for the free world, but it’s not necessarily the economy today.” While consumers and analysts may be focused on the short term, Dimon said he was concerned about the shifting “tectonic plates” shaping the economy’s trajectory over the much longer term. “I am quite worried about it,” the banker added. “They may determine the economy, but it may be a year from now, a few years from now, or maybe it will all be reserved somehow. But I’m quite concerned about it, so put me in the more cautious category about how that plays out.” To be in a category among the more skeptical on Wall Street is nothing out of the ordinary for Dimon. The JPMorgan chairman wrote in 2024 that he ran America’s largest bank with a military leadership tactic in mind: the “OODA loop.” The acronym stands for observe, orient, decide, act—with Dimon adding: “One cannot overemphasize the impor