If Only Trump Knew What Vance Is Doing

Yesterday, Donald Trump admitted that he was being crafty when he elevated J. D. Vance to sell the resolution of the war with Iran. “If it works out, I’m going to take the credit,” Trump said of the peace deal. “If it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming J.D.”Trump was smirking when he said this, but it was not a joke. Judging by the messaging emanating from across the Republican Party, letting the president claim victory while making the vice president own an obvious defeat is the GOP strategy.The administration’s Plan A is to claim the war was a complete success—10/10, no notes, would wage it again. A handful of hawks have been willing to repeat this line. The primary argument is that the bombardment set back Iran’s conventional and nuclear military capabilities enough to justify the cost to the United States. “The fact is that the missile program is in ruins, just like the nuclear weapons program,” the conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt proposed.This rationalization overlooks a few small points, such as the fact that Iran’s missile program is not in ruins at all. American intelligence reportedly estimated last month that Iran retains 70 percent of its missiles and launchers, and has restored 30 of its 33 missile sites. Trump himself is now arguing that Iran must retain ballistic missiles as a matter of fairness. (“They have to have some,” he said yesterday, “because other people have some.”) Moreover, Trump’s deal would ultimately give Iran enormous new revenue streams by eliminating decades of economic sanctions, along with providing hundreds of billions of dollars in what Iran calls reparations. The money will eventually allow Tehran to build its military capacity beyond current levels.As for Iran’s nuclear program, if it were in ruins, that would primarily be as a result of bombings that occurred last year; outside experts believe that the most recent war caused less damage to the program. In any case, ruins seems exaggerated. Iran’s nuclear material is buried under