Analysis: China’s CO2 climbs 2% in early 2026 due to ‘wasted’ wind and solar
Why this matters: environmental and climate reporting with long-term consequences.
China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions grew by 2% in the first quarter of 2026, after a rise in the amount of “wasted” wind and solar power. The country used more coal and gas to generate electricity than in the same quarter a year earlier, despite a record amount of new wind and solar capacity being built. While the strait of Hormuz crisis has boosted China’s focus on energy security – including through clean energy and electrification – its electricity system is failing to keep up. The new analysis for Carbon Brief shows that, while China’s CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry increased in the first part of 2026, they remain below the peak in early 2024. Other key findings for the first quarter of 2026 include: There was a 23% year-on-year rise in wind-power capacity and 33% for solar. There was also a sharp rise in the amount of wind and solar output being “wasted”, as it was not accommodated by the current electricity system. As a result, emissions in the power sector increased by 4% year-on-year. Power-sector CO2 would have been flat without the rise in “wasted” wind and solar. Emissions in other sectors of the economy grew by 1%. The key reason for “wasted” wind and solar generation was the inflexible management of coal power plants and power grids, not a lack of grid infrastructure. In the first quarter of 2026, China’s energy system also began to adjust to the surge in oil and gas prices due to the blockade of the strait of Hormuz. This continued through April and May, with sharp reductions in oil imports and oil-based chemicals production, as well as the share of gas in electricity generation. However, the inability to make full use of new wind and solar power plants left China more exposed to the closure of the strait of Hormuz, by increasing the need for other fuels. This exposure could become more acute if the “super El Niño” that is forecast for later this year limits the electricity output of hydropower, while fossil-fuel supplies remain tight.