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Strait of Hormuz traffic won't return to normal until end of the year, traders say
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- There is a high likelihood that the shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will not return to normal this year, according to prediction market traders.
- There is now a 66% chance that the strait will not see a normal flow of traffic before January 2027 on Kalshi.
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There is a high likelihood that the shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will not return to normal this year, according to prediction market traders.
There is now a 66% chance that the strait will not see a normal flow of traffic before January 2027 on Kalshi. Odds that it will return to normal before August plummeted from 66% to 21% over the last two weeks. The market defines "normal traffic" as when the seven-day moving average is above 60 ships through the strait.
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